A note from Daniel

Expected value (or EV) helps you answer two questions. First, it tells you whether any option you are considering is going to be, on balance, positive or negative for you in the long run. Second, it allows you to compare different options to figure out which is the better choice, the better choice being simply the one that carries the highest expected value.

Daniel Quit, page 32 · August 18, 2024 Save to shelf

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Daniel p. 247

Chapter 11 Summary: • In general, when we quit, we fear two things: that we've failed and that we've wasted our time, effort, or money. • Waste is a forward-looking problem, not a backward-looking one.

Daniel Dec 2, 2024

Daniel p. 247

Chapter 11 Summary: • Goals, when set, are a proxy for an expected-value equation, balancing the benefits that you're trying to gain against the costs you're willing to bear. • Inflexible goals aren't a good fit for a flexible world. • With better advance planning (like identifying monkeys and pedestals and kill criteria) and the help of a good quitting coach, you can make goals more flexible, setting at least one "unless" and planning regular check-ins on the analysis that initially led to setting the goal.

Daniel Dec 2, 2024

Daniel p. 247

Chapter 11 Summary: • Goals can make it possible to achieve worthwhile things, but goals can also increase the chances that we will escalate commitment when we should quit. • Goals are pass-fail in nature. You either reach the finish line or you don't, and progress along the way matters very little. • Don't just measure whether you hit the goal, ask what you have achieved and learned along the way. • Set intermediate goals and prioritize goals that allow you to recognize progress along the way or acquire something valuable even if you don't reach the goal.

Daniel Dec 2, 2024

Daniel p. 246

Ultimately, where you're going—where we're all going— is along whatever route will have the greatest expected value throughout our lives. That path is going to involve a lot of quitting. Contrary to popular belief, winners quit a lot. That's how they win.

Daniel Dec 2, 2024

Daniel p. 246

We need to start thinking about waste as a forward-looking prob-lem, not a backward-looking one. That means realizing that spending another minute or another dollar or another bit of effort on something that is no longer worthwhile is the real waste.

Daniel Dec 2, 2024

Daniel p. 245

We need to redefine what waste is. What does it mean to waste your time or money or effort? Our problem is that we tend to think about these things in a backward-looking way. We feel like if we walk away from something, that means we've wasted everything that we put into it. But those are resources that are already spent. You can't get them back.

Daniel Dec 2, 2024

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Ultra Successful p. 61

when you study people who've created extraordinary lives, you realize they didn't follow templates for career paths and lifestyles; they designed their own blueprint.

Daniel Aug 12, 2026

Ultra Successful p. 60

The False Constraints That Limit Your Potential: - The Size of Your Opportunities I see that the most successful people swing big, even when they have no business taking those swings, and they often land The difference between you and them is your "willingness" to believe you belong in bigger conversations.

Daniel Aug 12, 2026

Ultra Successful p. 60

The False Constraints That Limit Your Potential: - How Quickly You Can Scale Whether it's your business or your career, there are unspoken timelines that people accept as gospel.They are all untrue: "You can only really grow at 10% a year." "You need to pay your dues for a decade before getting promoted." These artificial limits keep people moving at a crawl when they could be sprinting or pushing for more. The most successful people I know refuse to accept conventional wisdom about timelines, and oddly enough, they break them all the time.

Daniel Aug 12, 2026

Atomic Habits 0

• Being motivated and curious counts for more than being smart because it leads to action. • It is desire, not intelligence, that prompts behavior.

Daniel Aug 12, 2026

Ultra Successful p. 54

Our limits lie in our thinking. You need to root them out and rework them. A lack of self-belief will fundamentally change how you direct your actions...across all facets of your life. The person who thinks they "might not be capable" of being the next CTO will fill themselves with anxiety and be less likely to take any chances, even if they get there. Chances that might showcase their talents and make them outstanding in their work.

Daniel Aug 11, 2026

Ultra Successful p. 54

Keeping the Fire, Slaying the Dragon (Part II) - People won't promote or fund me vs I AM JUST TALKING TO THE WRONG PEOPLE - I'm not built like X person vs I CAN LEVERAGE WHAT / KNOW TO MAKE THIS HAPPEN - My company isn't built for distance vs I CAN ARCHITECT THIS TO GO WHERE I WANT - These might not work vs I WILL PUT THIS INTO THE WORLD AND SEE WHAT COMES

Daniel Aug 11, 2026

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