A note from Daniel

A perfectly rational decision-maker would consider only the future costs and benefits in deciding whether to continue with a course of action. In other words, if continuing on has a positive expected value, a rational actor would persevere. If it has a negative expected value, they would quit. Forty years of experiments and fieldwork across a variety of domains show that people behave as Thaler hypothesized regarding sunk costs. In decisions about whether to move forward, they do take into account what they've already spent. They do this because they irrationally think that the only way to recover or justify the costs is if they continue on.

Daniel Quit, page 89 · August 26, 2024 Save to shelf
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Daniel p. 247

Chapter 11 Summary: • Goals, when set, are a proxy for an expected-value equation, balancing the benefits that you're trying to gain against the costs you're willing to bear. • Inflexible goals aren't a good fit for a flexible world. • With better advance planning (like identifying monkeys and pedestals and kill criteria) and the help of a good quitting coach, you can make goals more flexible, setting at least one "unless" and planning regular check-ins on the analysis that initially led to setting the goal.
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Daniel p. 247

Chapter 11 Summary: • Goals can make it possible to achieve worthwhile things, but goals can also increase the chances that we will escalate commitment when we should quit. • Goals are pass-fail in nature. You either reach the finish line or you don't, and progress along the way matters very little. • Don't just measure whether you hit the goal, ask what you have achieved and learned along the way. • Set intermediate goals and prioritize goals that allow you to recognize progress along the way or acquire something valuable even if you don't reach the goal.
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Ultra Successful p. 60

The False Constraints That Limit Your Potential: - How Quickly You Can Scale Whether it's your business or your career, there are unspoken timelines that people accept as gospel.They are all untrue: "You can only really grow at 10% a year." "You need to pay your dues for a decade before getting promoted." These artificial limits keep people moving at a crawl when they could be sprinting or pushing for more. The most successful people I know refuse to accept conventional wisdom about timelines, and oddly enough, they break them all the time.
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