A note from Daniel

Suppose you knew nothing at all about thermostats, but you had a lot of data about past heat flows into and out of the room. You could find an equation telling you how those flows have varied together in the past, because under ordinary circumstances, being governed by the same stock (temperature of the room), they do vary together. Your equation would hold, however, only until something changes in the system's structure—someone opens a window or improves the insulation. You could predict tomorrow's room temperature with your equation, as long as the system didn't change or break down. But if you were asked to make the room warmer, or if the room temperature suddenly started plummeting and you had to fix it, or if you wanted to produce the same room temperature with a lower fuel bill, your behavior-level analysis wouldn't help you. You would have to dig into the system's structure.

Daniel Thinking In Systems, page 90 · March 2, 2025 Save to shelf
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