Economics John Maynard Keynes believed stocks are priced not according to their intrinsic value but according to investors' perceptions of other investors' perceptions of their value. The reality is that, barring illegal insider trading, most investors have access to pretty much the same information. Predicting prices is less a matter of understanding a stock's value and more a matter of predicting how other people will react to the same information. First-order thinking is not enough. Second-order thinking—the act of thinking of the consequences of consequences—is necessary for useful predic-tions. In a Keynesian beauty contest, the more levels someone can think ahead to, the more accurate their decisions will be.

The False Constraints That Limit Your Potential: - The Size of Your Opportunities I see that the most successful people swing big, even when they have no business taking those swings, and they often land The difference between you and them is your "willingness" to believe you belong in bigger conversations.

The False Constraints That Limit Your Potential: - How Quickly You Can Scale Whether it's your business or your career, there are unspoken timelines that people accept as gospel.They are all untrue: "You can only really grow at 10% a year." "You need to pay your dues for a decade before getting promoted." These artificial limits keep people moving at a crawl when they could be sprinting or pushing for more. The most successful people I know refuse to accept conventional wisdom about timelines, and oddly enough, they break them all the time.

Our limits lie in our thinking. You need to root them out and rework them. A lack of self-belief will fundamentally change how you direct your actions...across all facets of your life. The person who thinks they "might not be capable" of being the next CTO will fill themselves with anxiety and be less likely to take any chances, even if they get there. Chances that might showcase their talents and make them outstanding in their work.

Keeping the Fire, Slaying the Dragon (Part II) - People won't promote or fund me vs I AM JUST TALKING TO THE WRONG PEOPLE - I'm not built like X person vs I CAN LEVERAGE WHAT / KNOW TO MAKE THIS HAPPEN - My company isn't built for distance vs I CAN ARCHITECT THIS TO GO WHERE I WANT - These might not work vs I WILL PUT THIS INTO THE WORLD AND SEE WHAT COMES